QRA = Quarterly Refunding Announcement

Every quarter, the US Treasury Department releases its QRA, which outlines the government's borrowing plans for the upcoming months. It provides crucial information about the issuance of Treasury securities (T-bills, notes, and bonds), which are essential for funding government operations and managing the national debt. Investors closely monitor these announcements to gauge the supply of Treasuries in the market, which can impact bond prices, yields, and overall market sentiment.

What truly influences markets, especially bond yields, is the announcement detailing the projected distribution of issuance across different tenors.

When the US Treasury opts to increase T-bill issuance while keeping coupon issuance unchanged, long-term US Treasuries experience relief from selling pressure, as the overall supply isn't expanded. However, if coupon supply increases, markets must brace themselves to absorb the added supply, even without support from the Federal Reserve due to Quantitative Tightening.